Swing State Odds
At a rally in Georgia, President Donald Trump continued to make baseless claims about the 2020 election being “rigged,” drawing false comparisons at one point between President-elect Joe Biden’s performance in swing states and that of the last two Democratic presidential nominees:
'Swing states are the most critical states in the upcoming election. They're essentially the tipping point of who's going to win the electoral college, then win the presidency,' explains Swing.
- Trump said Biden beat Hillary Clinton “in the swing states, but she beat him everywhere else.” That’s false. Biden outperformed Clinton in every state — not just swing states.
- He also wrongly said “President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states.” When comparing the candidates by percentage of total votes, Obama did better than Biden in most states, including four of the six swing states being contested by Trump. And Biden would still win the presidency without the two other contested states.
Only one of them — Nevada — is a swing state where Trump has been contesting the results. Clinton barely edged Biden there, garnering 51.29% of the Nevada vote, compared with Biden’s 51.22%. My battleground state polling for PoliticalIQ.com has consistently shown the president running a few points behind where he needs to be. In the three midwestern states that put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin and six in Pennsylvania.
While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any. President Trump's longshot chances of overturning President-elect Joe Biden's win just became pretty much impossible.Even before Biden was projected to win the 2020 election, Trump and his supporters launched a bevvy of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying ballots in states Biden narrowly picked up. Those suits have slowly been dropped or dismissed, and on Monday, a slew of swing-state drops have.
The president visited Valdosta, Georgia, on Dec. 5 to campaign for the state’s two Republican senators who were forced into runoff elections against their Democratic challengers. But the president spent most of his 90-minute speech repeating false, misleading and unsupported claims about the election that he made just a few days earlier in an online video that he billed as perhaps “the most important speech I’ve ever made.”
At the rally, Trump insisted that he won Georgia (“You know we won Georgia, just so you understand”) and Wisconsin (“Well, actually I won Wisconsin”) — even though bothstates have certified Biden as the winner after recounts. Georgia counted its ballots three times.
Trump also repeated bogus claims about secret, illegal ballot “dumps” in bothstates that we have already debunked. This time, the president suggested that the ballot “dumps” explain what he described as a “very interesting” and “statistically impossible” anomaly in some swing states won by Biden. (His campaign has gone to court to challenge the results in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.)
After correctly noting that he won Florida, Ohio, South Carolina and Iowa, the president said this:
Trump, Dec. 5: And we won all over the place. And many of these swing states, you know, it’s a very interesting statistic. President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states where Biden beat him badly. How does that work? And they say it’s statistically impossible. He beat crooked Hillary. Think of this. He beat crooked Hillary in the swing states, but she beat him everywhere else. Let me tell you, this election was rigged.
All of that is wrong.
“There is no such thing as a ‘statistical impossibility,’ for starters,” Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told us in an email.
Biden vs. Clinton
Using Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, we looked at the 2016 results and found that Biden outperformed Clinton in every state — not just swing states – both by the number and the percentage of votes. (The unofficial 2020 results were as of Dec. 8.)
Stewart said he prefers comparing candidates by percentage of votes, but without minor party candidates’ vote totals. By that measure, we found Clinton outperformed Biden in only six states (California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and New York) and Washington, D.C. Only one of them — Nevada — is a swing state where Trump has been contesting the results. Clinton barely edged Biden there, garnering 51.29% of the Nevada vote, compared with Biden’s 51.22%.
In his own analysis of the 2020 and 2016 elections for us, Stewart said he found “what political scientists would call a ‘uniform swing’ for Biden nationwide,” with some minor variations.
“[T]he way elections work, it would be unlikely a winning candidate would do better (compared to 4 years before) in only the close states and not the uncompetitive states,” Stewart said.
Stewart provided this scatterplot that shows a “uniform swing” toward Biden.
“There are 51 circles, one for each state plus DC. The diagonal line is where every state would be if the vote share for Biden = the vote share for Clinton,” Stewart said, explaining his chart. “As you can see, the circles are sitting mostly right on top of the line, which is consistent with Biden being just a few points ahead of Clinton in almost all the states.”
By any measure, Trump’s wrong to say that Clinton beat Biden everywhere, except swing states.
Biden vs. Obama
We also reviewed the 2012 and 2008 election results and found that Barack Obama did have a higher percentage of the total vote than Biden in most states: 29 states in 2012 and 37 states (plus Washington, D.C.) in 2008. But Obama also did better than Biden in four of the six swing states now being contested by Trump — Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania — in 2008 and 2012. As a percentage of the vote, Biden did better than Obama only in Georgia and Arizona — two other states where Trump is contesting the results.
However, even without the electoral votes in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Biden would still have enough electoral votes to beat Trump. The unofficial election results show Biden with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. It takes 270 electoral votes to become president.
By vote totals, Biden did better than Obama in nearly all states — although that’s not surprising since there were also far more people who voted in 2020 (158,507,629) than had voted eight years ago in 2012 (129,237,642) and 12 years ago in 2008 (131,473,705):
- 2012: Biden received more votes than Obama did in 2012 in all but five states – Mississippi, Iowa, North Dakota, Ohio, West Virginia. Biden did better than Obama in all the swing states that Trump has been contesting: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
- 2008: Biden received more votes than Obama did in 2008 in all but 11 states. Obama did better in two swing states that Trump has been contesting: Michigan and Wisconsin.
So, no matter how one looks at the election results, Trump is also wrong to say that “President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states.”
By total votes, Biden did better than Obama in most states, including swing states. By vote percentage, Obama did better than Biden in most states, including in most swing states.
Once again, the president is peddling false information that fails to support his baseless claim that the election was “rigged.”
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Swing State Watchis an occasional series about false and misleading political messages in key states that will help decide the 2020 presidential election.
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With at least 94 million early votes cast by the eve of US election day, Americans are engaged in a highly contested election for the president, one third of the Senate, and all of the House of Representatives.
The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally disrupted the US economy, society, and political landscape, as well as increased many risks around the conduct of a genuine and transparent election.
The economy has seen large fluctuations in quarterly growth rates, a fall in family income, and a rise in unemployment, while at the same time a buoyant stock market, despite a rocky ride in the week before the election, provides hope for recovery. The campaigns have spent more than US$1 billion to reach voters in battleground states. Analysis of the “poll of polls” shows Democratic candidate Joe Biden with more than a 8-point lead over Republican president, Donald Trump.
But despite the abnormalities of the 2020 election cycle, as in many previous races, the result will hang on what happens in a select bunch of key swing states.
Swing machine
Crucial to understanding the conversion of votes to success in any US presidential election is the electoral college. In its first past the post system to collate proportionate electoral votes by state, each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. The electoral college was crucial in Trump’s 2016 victory. He lost the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, but won the presidency with 306 electoral college votes to the 232 for Hillary Clinton.
Read more: As the world watches US election, the appeal of America is diminished
The Trump victory in 2016 came late on election day and rested on securing the electoral votes from swing states, which have high voter volatility and demographic diversity, often making them too close to call. While different states come into play in different election cycles, swing states for the 2020 election include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Swing State Odds 2020
Four years ago, Trump held rallies across these states and carried all but one of them (Minnesota). The electoral landscape in 2020 looks different, with three “toss-up” states (Florida, Georgia, and Texas), six Biden-leaning states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and two Trump-leaning states (Iowa and Ohio).
Swing state dominance, coupled with the control of safer states, put the electoral odds in Biden’s favour. Early voting, mail-in voting, and different costs of voting that can affect turnout – including registration, poll opening times and how accessible polling is – means there is still much to be revealed on election day. Here are six states worth keeping an eye on.
Swing State Odds Golf
Six states to watch
Pennsylvania
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where I was born, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but now shows a strong preference for Trump along with other rural and working class areas in the state, while cities such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are polling well for the Democrats. It was also a state where exit polls showed Trump had support from 50% of white women in 2016.
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral college votes, which Trump won in 2016 with a 0.78% margin. For 2020, Biden carries a lead in the polls and has gained ground over the course of the campaign, a surprising struggle given he comes from Scranton, a city in the northeast with over 75,000 people, and from a state that voted for the Democrats between 1992 and 2016. Attempts to get the Supreme Court to rule out the planned extension of a mail-in ballot deadline until November 6, if the vote was postmarked by election day, have been rejected for reasons of time.
Swing State Betting Odds
Arizona
Arizona is a sunbelt and border state, which has voted Republican since 1957, except when Bill Clinton won it in 1996. Large demographic shifts and migration of people from California, as well as the presence of the oft-attacked McCain dynasty have changed the political complexion of the state.
Biden heads into November 3 with a lead in the polls in Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes. Meanwhile, the “independent” Democratic candidate Mark Kelly is leading in his Senate race against incumbent Republican Martha McSally.
Texas
In Texas, Biden is neck and neck with Trump in a traditionally Republican state that shares a long border with Mexico – a focal point for Trump’s promise to build a wall – and a strong cohort of Latino Republican voters. With 38 electoral college votes at stake, the state has been a reliable stronghold for Trump, who will likely win by a whisker.
Florida
With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs, the race in the Sunshine State is very tight. Florida was a site of Democratic success in the 2018 midterms, but is also led by a Republican governor. The state is notorious for the “hanging chad” ballot problem central to the contested 2000 Bush-Gore election which resulted in the US Supreme Court deciding the election. This foreshadows ongoing debates over how people actually vote.
Trump has made the state his home, and enjoys support among Cuban and Venezuelan Americans there. Both campaigns have sought to woo voters with Trump rallies, Biden events, and a visit from Barack Obama in Miami and Orlando. St. Petersburg and Tampa have voted Democrat in past elections, and a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll puts both candidates in a statistical dead heat.
Georgia
One of the original colonies, part of the “old south”, Georgia has participated in all elections since the founding (with the exception of 1864 during its secession). It was a Democratic stronghold until 1972, when it flipped Republican. Biden has a slight lead, but like Florida, the margin of error in polling suggests that the state is still in toss-up territory.
Wisconsin
Known for its cheese production and Miller beer (since 1855), Wisconsin has ten electoral votes. Trump won the state in 2016 with only a 0.7% margin in the popular vote. Biden leads by over an average of 6% (in one poll by 17%) and is likely to take the state in 2020. Unlike in Pennsylvania, a few days before polling day, the Supreme Court ruled that the state’s decision to extend the election by six days could not be upheld and that only those ballots received by the deadline would be counted, as it is done in over 30 other states.
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The last days of the campaign saw both candidates criss-crossing the country to garner support. On election night, all eyes will be on these swing states, with both sides matching polling data to electoral returns, and waiting for any last minute surprises. Given the underlying data, the election is now Biden’s to lose, and these battleground states will be critical to the outcome, the confirmation of which may take several days after the election.