Odds To Win Election Live

The latest 2024 presidential election odds show Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump at most European sportsbooks. For instance, Harris is +350 to win in 2024 at Bet365, with Biden at +400 and Trump at +600.

It’s worth remembering that at this point the betting gave Hillary Clinton a much better chance of victory with a week to go until polling day, making her 4/11 (73 per cent) to win and Trump 14. On the other hand, what if the odds that Kamala Harris will win the election are +135. If you bet $100 on Harris to win, you win $135 and get back the original $100 bet. When the 2020 election odds are +135 that means oddsmakers give the Democrats a 42.55% chance of winning the election.

The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.

The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.

By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.

Live Odds To Win The Election

Here’s a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at two UK books:

Presidential election odds 2024

Candidate	Bet365	Betway
Kamala Harris	+350	+400
Joe Biden	+400	+400
Donald Trump	+600	+800
Mike Pence	+1400	+1600
Nikki Haley	+1400	+2000
Ivanka Trump	+2500	+3300
AOC	+2500	+3300
Dwayne Johnson	+2800	+5000
Ted Cruz	+3300	+3300
Michelle Obama	+3300	+3300
Tucker Carlson	+3300	+3300
Pete Buttigieg	+4000	+2800
Liz Cheney	+5000	OTB

Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It’s reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.

The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.

That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:

Donald Trump, 2017-2021
George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
Gerald Ford, 1974-77
Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
William Howard Taft, 1909-13
Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
John Adams, 1797-1801

If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.

Harris’ nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.

Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?

The short answer is yes.

Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.

In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.

By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.

UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.

Election betting explained

Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.

The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.

Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.

That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.

What to monitor: polling data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.

Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders

Democrats

In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Republicans

While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, current Vice President Mike Pence is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Trump’s daughter Ivanka.

Odds To Win Election Live Stream

2024 Presidential betting tips

In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.

That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.

Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.

Can you bet in the US?

So far, no states have allowed sportsbooks within their borders to take action on the results of any US elections. If that changes to any degree, TheLines will keep you updated on the progress of that movement.

Fluctuations in the betting markets have seen Joe Biden gain ground on Donald Trump in the presidential contest as well as the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania after the Democratic nominee had trailed the president earlier on Wednesday, according to a leading bookmaker.

Having placed Trump to win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday, Betfair later said Biden was back out in front with odds of 1-2 (implying a 66 percent chance) after going in front in Wisconsin.

Donald Trump is now priced at 2-1 (33 percent chance) to win re-election after having odds as short as 1-4 (80 percent chance) earlier today.

Rapidly changing odds reflected a growing uncertainty over who would win four years in the White House, with Trump having been odds-on favorite overnight to win Pennsylvania—a crucial step towards winning the presidency.

Overnight, Trump was priced at 2-9 to take the industrial northeastern state for a second consecutive election, after he narrowly won in 2016 to become the first Republican to win a presidential contest there since 1988.

According to Betfair, the president's odds implied an 82 percent chance of securing Pennsylvania's 20 Electoral College votes. However that switched later on Wednesday with the bookmaker offering evens (50 percent chance) for both men to win the state's backing.

A Betfair spokesperson said: 'Joe Biden is now back in front and the 1-2 favourite to be elected president as more news unfolds from the key swing states in the United States.

'Taking the lead in Wisconsin could be the turning point with the Democrat now also projected to win Nevada and Arizona, which would likely give him the 270 electoral college votes he needs for victory.

'Donald Trump, whose chance of re-election moved to as high as 1-4 (80 percent chance) earlier today, is now out to a 2-1 shot as votes continue to be counted. But with an election of this magnitude and particularly one involving Trump, as we know, nothing is impossible.'

As of 7 a.m. ET, Trump was leading by 55.1 percent to 43.6 percent in the vote tally in Pennsylvania, with an estimated 75 percent of votes counted. However a large proportion of the uncounted votes are mail-in ballots, which are expected to favor Biden.

Pennsylvania has seen numerous legal battles play out, including over voters being allowed to fix problems with their ballots, and the decision to expand mail-in voting means it could be hours if not days until a winner is officially announced.

Speaking after the polls closed, Pennsylvania's Democratic Governor Tom Wolf urged his constituents to 'remain calm, be patient, [and] stay united on election night and in the days ahead.'

Early on Wednesday morning he tweeted that his state had more than 1 million ballots still to be counted and said he had made a promise to Pennsylvanians 'that we would count every vote and that's what we're going to do.'

Letâs be clear: This is a partisan attack on Pennsylvaniaâs elections, our votes, and democracy.

Our counties are working tirelessly to process votes as quickly AND as accurately as possible.

Pennsylvania will have a fair election and we will count every vote.

— Governor Tom Wolf (@GovernorTomWolf) November 4, 2020

Odds To Win Us Election Live

Pennsylvania has long been touted as a crucial state to win, not just for its sizable number of Electoral College votes but what indication it gives about the general direction of travel in the U.S. presidential contest.

Both Biden and Trump ploughed vast amounts of money and time into the state, including in the dying days of the campaign. Trump held four rallies across Pennsylvania on Saturday alone while Biden opted for a symbolic return to his hometown of Scranton on election day.

A source close to the Biden campaign told Newsweek last month that the state was 'driving everyone's strategy,' adding: 'We'll probably win here. But if we don't, we are so screwed.'

Live Odds To Win Election

Polling and political analysis website FiveThirtyEight has described Pennsylvania as the 'single most important state of the 2020 election.'